Busted again! As I warned yesterday , the S&P is simply too overpriced to take us back over the serious resistance we have at the 2,100 line (2,127.50 is the exact 15% line on our Big Chart that should be the upper limit) and we played it perfectly in our Live Member Chat Room , adding another S&P Ultra-Short (SDS) hedge to our Short-Term Portfolio ahead of the big drop . We continue to have bad data reports – even within the " good " reports, when you take a closer look. Like yesterday, we had the obviously bad Chicago PMI at 49.3 (contracting) and Consumer Confidence fell from 94.4 to 92.6 while the Dallas Fed was a horrific -20.8 and even State Street's Investor Confidence dropped to 106.64 from 108.60. The "good" report was Personal Income rising 0.4% but that puts a margin squeeze on corporations and Consumer Spending jumped 1% but it was mostly on rising gas prices and spending 0.6% more than you gained in income is NOT a healthy long-term sign. Today we'll get Redbook Sales, PMI and ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Job Creation numbers and, this afternoon (2pm), we'll get a look at the Fed's Beige Book. As I noted in our Member Chat Room yesterday , I can't make the optimistic math work that the Atlanta Fed is using in the GDPNow forecast that projects 2.9% Q2 GDP growth. ISM is one of the components, so we'll see if that's a positive but, on the whole, this economy certainly doesn't have the feel of 3% growth – does it? As we expected, yesterday's bogus "window-dressing" rally into the close has already evaporated in the Futures and we're back to yesterday's lows at Dow ( /YM ) 17,700, S&P ( /ES ) 2,085, Nasdaq ( /NQ ) 4,500, Russell ( /TF ) 1,150 and Nikkei ( /NKD ) 16,900 and we'd be a lot worse off (not the Nikkei) if the Dollar hadn't taken a dive back to 95.35, boosting the indexes up 0.5% as they reprice against the weak Dollar. That's popping gold, of course, and we just picked up a long on ABX ($17) in yesterday's Member Chat , but well-hedged, as we're still expecting more downside for gold as the Dollar pops back up into the Brexit vote. IN PROGRESS
Busted again!
As I warned yesterday, the S&P is simply too overpriced to take us back over the serious resistance we have at the 2,100 line (2,127.50 is the exact 15% line on our Big Chart that should be the upper limit) and we played it perfectly in our Live Member Chat Room, adding another S&P Ultra-Short (SDS) hedge to our Short-Term Portfolio ahead of the big drop.
We continue to have bad data reports – even within the "good" reports, when you take a closer look. Like yesterday, we had the obviously bad Chicago PMI at 49.3 (contracting) and Consumer Confidence fell from 94.4 to 92.6 while the Dallas Fed was a horrific -20.8 and even State Street's Investor Confidence dropped to 106.64 from 108.60. The "good" report was Personal Income rising 0.4% but that puts a margin squeeze on corporations and Consumer Spending jumped 1% but it was mostly on rising gas prices and spending 0.6% more than you gained in income is NOT a healthy long-term sign.
Today we'll get Redbook Sales, PMI and ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Job Creation numbers and, this afternoon (2pm), we'll get a look at the Fed's Beige Book. As I noted in our Member Chat Room yesterday, I can't make the optimistic math work that the Atlanta Fed is using in the GDPNow forecast that projects 2.9% Q2 GDP growth. ISM is one of the components, so we'll see if that's a positive but, on the whole, this economy certainly doesn't have the feel of 3% growth – does it?
As we expected, yesterday's bogus "window-dressing" rally into the close has already evaporated in the Futures and we're back to yesterday's lows at Dow (/YM) 17,700, S&P (/ES) 2,085, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,500, Russell (/TF) 1,150 and Nikkei (/NKD) 16,900 and we'd be a lot worse off (not the Nikkei) if the Dollar hadn't taken a dive back to 95.35, boosting the indexes up 0.5% as they reprice against the weak Dollar.
That's popping gold, of course, and we just picked up a long on ABX ($17) in yesterday's Member Chat, but well-hedged, as we're still expecting more downside for gold as the Dollar pops back up into the Brexit vote.
IN PROGRESS
