Less than half of Californians (46 percent) believe the California Dream is still alive, a sign that the recent economic downturn has had a significant impact on the outlook of the state’s residents, according to the latest Citi California Pulse™. Moreover, just 50 percent of those surveyed say they would move to California today if they did not already live in the state.
The findings continue the trend of caution that Citibank’s quarterly survey has identified over the last 18 months, as California residents remain wary about both the economy and their own personal financial situations, despite signs that the state is emerging from the recession.
“Until Californians see tangible signs of a recovery in their own lives and communities, a mood of caution will prevail,” said Rebecca Macieira-Kaufmann, President of Citibank California. “We continue to see strong evidence of the state’s resiliency and optimism, which bodes well for the future, but current sentiment remains lukewarm.”
Optimistic about the Future
At the same time, Californians – particularly San Francisco Bay Area and younger residents – remain optimistic about the future, believing that conditions will improve in the coming year. Looking ahead 12 months, 68 percent say they believe their personal financial situation will be better, up from 64 percent in the last survey; 58 percent say they believe economic conditions will improve, up from 55 percent; and 56 percent say the state will offer more job opportunities, flat from the last survey.
Throughout the survey, respondents cite jobs as the most important issue affecting their view of California and its economy. Though down slightly from the last survey, 85 percent still rate job opportunities in the state as only fair or poor. Additionally, 65 percent say they know someone who has lost a job, and when asked to name the best indicator that the economy is recovering, 31 percent say more jobs and 22 percent say falling unemployment.
Among the survey’s key findings:
- 89 percent say the economy in California is fair or poor;
- 86 percent say they would create incentives for California businesses to expand as a way to address the state’s budget challenges;
- 62 percent do not see signs that the economy in California is improving, down from 66 percent in the last survey;
- 62 percent would cut spending and services to fix the state’s budget issues, 29 percent would raise taxes;
- 60 percent say California is on the wrong track, while 26 percent say it is headed in the right direction.
California Dreaming
According to the survey, residents are split over whether California can retain its image as the Golden State, with 46 percent saying California used to be a better place to live, 29 percent saying it continues to be a land of opportunity and 21 percent believing its best days remain ahead of it. When asked reasons for wanting to leave California, respondents cite the cost of living (29 percent), scarce job opportunities (16 percent) and high taxes (15 percent).
Yet California still holds a strong connection to its residents, as many show a reluctance to leave the state. Sixty-seven percent say they would stay in the state even if they had the opportunity to move out, and 58 percent say they would recommend California as a place to live to a friend or relative. Additionally, 52 percent say if they were graduating college in the next three months they would stay in California to look for a job.
Regional and Age Differences
The survey found significant differences among residents of Southern California and Northern California – specifically in the San Francisco Bay Area – as well as among younger and older Californians. In the most striking difference, the Citi California Pulse Index of optimism in San Francisco came in at +13, compared to +1 in San Diego and 0 in Los Angeles. Sacramento was -3 and Fresno -9, the lowest among California cities surveyed. Among the other findings:
- When asked about living in California, 76 percent in the San Francisco area rate the state as an excellent or good place to live, while 24 percent call it only fair or poor. In the Los Angeles area, 64 percent say California is an excellent or good place to live and 36 percent rate it as only fair or poor.
- 70 percent in the San Francisco area believe job opportunities will be better in 12 months, compared to 59 percent in the Los Angeles area.
- 56 percent in the San Francisco area are comfortable with their current level of savings, compared to 41 percent in the Los Angeles area.
- 50 percent in the San Francisco area see signs that the economy is improving, compared to 38 percent in the Los Angeles area.
- 61 percent of those aged 18-34 believe job opportunities will be better in 12 months, compared to 52 percent of those aged 35-54.
- 34 percent of those aged 18-34 say their own financial situation is better than a year ago, while just 19 percent of those aged 35-54 feel the same way. Looking ahead 12 months, 79 percent of those aged 18-34 are optimistic that their own financial situation will improve, compared to 69 percent of those aged 35-54.
Optimism Index
Overall, the Citi California Pulse Index of optimism improved from -2 in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 0 in the first quarter of 2011, moving out of negative territory. At 0, the index is on the exact middle point of all possible scores, which could range from +100 to -100. While most Californians continue to rate current economic conditions negatively, respondents’ outlook on the future rose nearly across the board, which helped drive the index’s rise.
About the survey
The Citi California Pulse™ is a quarterly survey focused on California consumer and small business sentiment regarding the current and future economic environment. This poll was conducted by telephone March 25-31, 2011, among a random sample of 1,961 California residents, age 18 and older throughout the state. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. The design includes interviews with cell phone respondents, 303 interviews in the San Francisco MSA, 336 interviews in the Los Angeles MSA, 308 interviews in the San Diego MSA, 303 interviews in the Sacramento MSA, and 301 interviews in the Fresno MSA. The cell phone and MSA samples are weighted to the correct proportions. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3.6 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Abt SRBI Public Affairs, a major national polling firm, conducted all interviewing. For additional information, visit: www.srbi.com.
Index Methodology
The Citi California Pulse™ Index of optimism is calculated by subtracting negative responses to each item from the positive responses for all 12 index items. The Index scale can range from +100 (if every respondent gave positive response to each of the 12 questions) to -100 (if all respondents expressed consistently negative views).
About Citibank
Citibank is a member of Citi®, the leading global financial services company, which has approximately 200 million customer accounts and does business in more than 160 countries and jurisdictions. Through Citicorp and Citi Holdings, Citi provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, transaction services, and wealth management. Additional information may be found at www.citigroup.com.
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Contacts:
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