Flying taxis have been “just around the corner” for years. But Joby Aviation (JOBY) is making a compelling case that could accelerate its air taxi deployment timeline. Joby just hit what could be its most important milestone yet — one that puts paying passengers a lot closer to climbing into an electric air taxi. 

Here's what investors need to know right now.

Joby's FAA Certification Progress Is a Big Deal 

Joby recently announced it has begun flight testing its first FAA-conforming aircraft for TIA (Type Inspection Authorization). This is a major step toward the Federal Aviation Administration issuing a full type certificate, which Joby needs before it can legally carry paying passengers in the U.S. 

The company confirmed this aircraft, designated N547JX, was assembled using FAA-approved designs and signed off by FAA Designated Airworthiness Representatives. Once Joby's own pilots complete initial testing at its Marina, California, facility, FAA pilots are expected to visit later this year to conduct their own “for credit” evaluations. That data feeds directly into the issuance of a type certificate.

Joby also reported a record 18-point jump in progress on Stage 4 of the FAA's five-stage certification process in Q4 of 2025. At the end of February, Stage 4 stood at 80% complete on Joby's side and 73% on the FAA's side.

The progress is the result of Joby's "vertically integrated" approach, meaning the vast majority of its aircraft components are designed, built, and tested in-house. It reduces reliance on outside suppliers and gives Joby tighter control over timelines.

Joby's 2026 Opportunity Is Huge

The White House-backed electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) recently selected Joby as a partner across multiple winning applications. That gives the company the right to begin early operations across 10 states: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, and Utah, according to a company statement.

Moreover, Joby plans to carry its first paying passengers in Dubai later this year. Construction is already underway at two vertiport sites, Dubai International Airport and the American University of Dubai, as part of a six-year exclusive agreement to operate in that market.

Notably, the eVTOL company debuted the Joby Uber (UBER) in-app booking experience in Dubai in February and expects to integrate its Blade helicopter service into the Uber platform in the U.S. in the first half of 2026.

Partners like Delta Air Lines (DAL) have also been moving in the right direction. Delta met a key warrant milestone in Q4 of 2025 and exercised the first tranche of its warrants, according to the shareholder letter, a sign of growing commercial conviction.

A Healthy Balance Sheet

Joby remains unprofitable and posted a net loss of $121.5 million in Q4 of 2025. In 2025, its net loss stood at $929.8 million, while research and development expenses surged to $581 million. 

Analysts tracking JOBY stock forecast that cumulative free cash outflows will exceed $2.7 billion through 2030. In the last six months, Joby raised $1.8 billion and ended 2025 with $1.41 billion in cash. It also added $1.2 billion last month via equity and convertible debt offerings.

Joby expects to spend between $340 million and $370 million in cash in just the first half of 2026. Additionally, it will deploy about $33 million for a new 728,000-square-foot manufacturing facility it recently acquired in Dayton, Ohio.

What's Next for Joby Aviation Stock?

For 2026, Joby is guiding for total revenue of $105 million to $150 million. Most of that will come from its Blade helicopter business, which it acquired last year. Revenue from air taxi operations won't contribute meaningfully until the aircraft is certified.

Wall Street estimates revenue to increase from $113 million in 2026 to $2.25 billion in 2030. It is forecast to report an EBITDA margin of 6.6% in 2030, compared to a negative margin of 578% this year. Joby has enough liquidity to sustain near-term operating costs. 

Out of the 11 analysts covering JOBY stock, one recommends “Strong Buy,” one recommends “Moderate Buy,” six recommend “Hold,” and three recommend “Strong Sell." The average JOBY stock price target is $11.94, which is above the current price of $9.70. 

The core question for investors is simple: Do you believe Joby will get there? Given the certification progress, the eIPP selection, the Dubai launch, and the $2.6 billion-plus cash position, the company appears better positioned than ever to find out.