GAAP AGO-06-30-2013-10Q
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
____________________________________________________________________________
FORM 10-Q
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ý | | QUARTERLY REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the Quarterly Period Ended June 30, 2013
Or
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o | | TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the transition Period from to
Commission File No. 001-32141
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
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| | |
Bermuda | | 98-0429991 |
(State or other jurisdiction | | (I.R.S. employer |
of incorporation) | | identification no.) |
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
(441) 279-5700
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer or a smaller reporting company. See definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
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Large accelerated filer x | | Accelerated filer o |
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Non-accelerated filer o | | Smaller reporting company o |
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company) | | |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes o No x
The number of registrant’s Common Shares ($0.01 par value) outstanding as of August 1, 2013 was 182,986,125 (includes 48,273 unvested restricted shares).
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
INDEX TO FORM 10-Q
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PART I. | FINANCIAL INFORMATION |
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ITEM 1. | FINANCIAL STATEMENTS |
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions except per share and share amounts)
|
| | | | | | | |
| As of June 30, 2013 | | As of December 31, 2012 |
Assets | |
| | |
|
Investment portfolio: | |
| | |
|
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value (amortized cost of $9,267 and $9,346) | $ | 9,564 |
| | $ | 10,056 |
|
Short term investments, at fair value | 943 |
| | 817 |
|
Other invested assets | 130 |
| | 212 |
|
Total investment portfolio | 10,637 |
| | 11,085 |
|
Cash | 143 |
| | 138 |
|
Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable | 915 |
| | 1,005 |
|
Ceded unearned premium reserve | 510 |
| | 561 |
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Deferred acquisition costs | 125 |
| | 116 |
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Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses | 60 |
| | 58 |
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Salvage and subrogation recoverable | 331 |
| | 456 |
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Credit derivative assets | 101 |
| | 141 |
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Deferred tax asset, net | 850 |
| | 721 |
|
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets, at fair value | 2,674 |
| | 2,688 |
|
Other assets | 262 |
| | 273 |
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Total assets | $ | 16,608 |
| | $ | 17,242 |
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Liabilities and shareholders’ equity | |
| | |
|
Unearned premium reserve | $ | 4,812 |
| | $ | 5,207 |
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Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve | 564 |
| | 601 |
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Reinsurance balances payable, net | 188 |
| | 219 |
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Long-term debt | 827 |
| | 836 |
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Credit derivative liabilities | 2,349 |
| | 1,934 |
|
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value | 1,940 |
| | 2,090 |
|
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value | 1,134 |
| | 1,051 |
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Other liabilities | 310 |
| | 310 |
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Total liabilities | 12,124 |
| | 12,248 |
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Commitments and contingencies (See Note 14) |
| |
|
Common stock ($0.01 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized; 182,901,083 and 194,003,297 shares issued and outstanding) | 2 |
| | 2 |
|
Additional paid-in capital | 2,483 |
| | 2,724 |
|
Retained earnings | 1,786 |
| | 1,749 |
|
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax of $83 and $198 | 209 |
| | 515 |
|
Deferred equity compensation (320,193 and 320,193 shares) | 4 |
| | 4 |
|
Total shareholders’ equity | 4,484 |
| | 4,994 |
|
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | $ | 16,608 |
| | $ | 17,242 |
|
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended June 30, | | Six Months Ended June 30, |
| 2013 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2012 |
Revenues | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | $ | 163 |
| | $ | 219 |
| | $ | 411 |
| | $ | 413 |
|
Net investment income | 93 |
| | 101 |
| | 187 |
| | 199 |
|
Net realized investment gains (losses): | | | | | | | |
Other-than-temporary impairment losses | (16 | ) | | (9 | ) | | (17 | ) | | (37 | ) |
Less: portion of other-than-temporary impairment loss recognized in other comprehensive income | (9 | ) | | (7 | ) | | (5 | ) | | (30 | ) |
Other net realized investment gains (losses) | 9 |
| | (1 | ) | | 42 |
| | 5 |
|
Net realized investment gains (losses) | 2 |
| | (3 | ) | | 30 |
| | (2 | ) |
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: | | | | | | | |
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements | (86 | ) | | (23 | ) | | (68 | ) | | (80 | ) |
Net unrealized gains (losses) | 160 |
| | 284 |
| | (450 | ) | | (350 | ) |
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives | 74 |
| | 261 |
| | (518 | ) | | (430 | ) |
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (3 | ) | | 4 |
| | (13 | ) | | (10 | ) |
Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest entities | 143 |
| | 168 |
| | 213 |
| | 127 |
|
Other income | (7 | ) | | 5 |
| | (21 | ) | | 96 |
|
Total revenues | 465 |
| | 755 |
| | 289 |
| | 393 |
|
Expenses |
|
| |
|
| | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 62 |
| | 118 |
| | 14 |
| | 360 |
|
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 1 |
| | 5 |
| | 4 |
| | 10 |
|
Interest expense | 21 |
| | 25 |
| | 42 |
| | 50 |
|
Other operating expenses | 52 |
| | 53 |
| | 112 |
| | 115 |
|
Total expenses | 136 |
| | 201 |
| | 172 |
| | 535 |
|
Income (loss) before income taxes | 329 |
| | 554 |
| | 117 |
| | (142 | ) |
Provision (benefit) for income taxes | |
| | |
| | | | |
Current | 3 |
| | (29 | ) | | 58 |
| | 0 |
|
Deferred | 107 |
| | 206 |
| | (16 | ) | | (36 | ) |
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes | 110 |
| | 177 |
| | 42 |
| | (36 | ) |
Net income (loss) | $ | 219 |
| | $ | 377 |
| | $ | 75 |
| | $ | (106 | ) |
| | | | | | | |
Earnings per share: | | | | | | | |
Basic | $ | 1.17 |
| | $ | 2.02 |
| | $ | 0.39 |
| | $ | (0.58 | ) |
Diluted | $ | 1.16 |
| | $ | 2.01 |
| | $ | 0.39 |
| | $ | (0.58 | ) |
Dividends per share | $ | 0.10 |
| | $ | 0.09 |
| | $ | 0.20 |
| | $ | 0.18 |
|
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (unaudited)
(in millions)
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended June 30, | | Six Months Ended June 30, |
| 2013 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2012 |
Net income (loss) | $ | 219 |
| | $ | 377 |
| | $ | 75 |
| | $ | (106 | ) |
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period on: | | | | | | | |
Investments with no other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $(79), $8, $(98), and $27 | (219 | ) | | 32 |
| | (269 | ) | | 74 |
|
Investments with other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $(7), $(1), $(15) and $(8) | (16 | ) | | (4 | ) | | (32 | ) | | (18 | ) |
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period, net of tax | (235 | ) | | 28 |
| | (301 | ) | | 56 |
|
Less: reclassification adjustment for gains (losses) included in net income (loss), net of tax provision (benefit) of $0, $(4), $(2) and $(5) | 2 |
| | (4 | ) | | (1 | ) | | (5 | ) |
Change in net unrealized gains on investments | (237 | ) | | 32 |
| | (300 | ) | | 61 |
|
Other, net of tax provision | (1 | ) | | (1 | ) | | (6 | ) | | 1 |
|
Other comprehensive income (loss) | $ | (238 | ) | | $ | 31 |
| | $ | (306 | ) | | $ | 62 |
|
Comprehensive income (loss) | $ | (19 | ) | | $ | 408 |
| | $ | (231 | ) | | $ | (44 | ) |
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Shareholders’ Equity (unaudited)
For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2013
(dollars in millions, except share data)
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Common Stock | | Additional Paid-in Capital | | Retained Earnings | | Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income | | Deferred Equity Compensation | | Total Shareholders’ Equity |
| Shares | | Amount | | | | | |
Balance at December 31, 2012 | 194,003,297 |
| | $ | 2 |
| | $ | 2,724 |
| | $ | 1,749 |
| | $ | 515 |
| | $ | 4 |
| | $ | 4,994 |
|
Net income | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 75 |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 75 |
|
Dividends ($0.20 per share) | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | (38 | ) | | — |
| | — |
| | (38 | ) |
Common stock repurchases | (11,489,529 | ) | | 0 |
| | (244 | ) | | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | (244 | ) |
Share-based compensation and other | 387,315 |
| | 0 |
| | 3 |
| | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 3 |
|
Other comprehensive loss | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | (306 | ) | | — |
| | (306 | ) |
Balance at June 30, 2013 | 182,901,083 |
| | $ | 2 |
| | $ | 2,483 |
| | $ | 1,786 |
| | $ | 209 |
| | $ | 4 |
| | $ | 4,484 |
|
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (unaudited)
(in millions)
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| | | | | | | |
| Six Months Ended June 30, |
| 2013 | | 2012 |
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities | $ | 122 |
| | $ | 162 |
|
Investing activities | |
| | |
|
Fixed maturity securities: | |
| | |
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Purchases | (987 | ) | | (924 | ) |
Sales | 632 |
| | 526 |
|
Maturities | 446 |
| | 515 |
|
Net sales (purchases) of short-term investments | (126 | ) | | (108 | ) |
Net proceeds from paydowns on financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets | 440 |
| | 283 |
|
Acquisition of MAC, net of cash acquired | — |
| | (91 | ) |
Other | 67 |
| | 72 |
|
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities | 472 |
| | 273 |
|
Financing activities | |
| | |
|
Proceeds from issuance of common stock | — |
| | 173 |
|
Dividends paid | (38 | ) | | (33 | ) |
Repurchases of common stock | (244 | ) | | (24 | ) |
Share activity under option and incentive plans | (1 | ) | | (2 | ) |
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities | (289 | ) | | (389 | ) |
Repayment of long-term debt | (13 | ) | | (196 | ) |
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities | (585 | ) | | (471 | ) |
Effect of exchange rate changes | (4 | ) | | (4 | ) |
Increase (decrease) in cash | 5 |
| | (40 | ) |
Cash at beginning of period | 138 |
| | 215 |
|
Cash at end of period | $ | 143 |
| | $ | 175 |
|
Supplemental cash flow information | |
| | |
|
Cash paid (received) during the period for: | |
| | |
|
Income taxes | $ | 69 |
| | $ | (16 | ) |
Interest | $ | 38 |
| | $ | 47 |
|
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)
June 30, 2013
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1. | Business and Basis of Presentation |
Business
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides, through its operating subsidiaries, credit protection products to the United States (“U.S.”) and international public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. The Company applies its credit underwriting judgment, risk management skills and capital markets experience to offer insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments, including scheduled interest and principal payments. The Company markets its credit protection products directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities as well as to investors in such obligations. The Company guarantees obligations issued in many countries, although its principal focus is on the U.S., as well as Europe and Australia.
Financial guaranty insurance policies provide an unconditional and irrevocable guaranty that protects the holder of a financial obligation against non-payment of principal and interest ("Debt Service") when due. Upon an obligor’s default on scheduled principal or interest payments due on the obligation, the Company is required under the financial guaranty policy to pay the principal or interest shortfall. The Company has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on public finance obligations and structured finance obligations. Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings. Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities and backed by pools of assets such as residential or commercial mortgage loans, consumer or trade receivables, securities or other assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value. The Company also includes within structured finance obligations other specialized financial obligations.
In the past, the Company had sold credit protection by issuing policies that guaranteed payment obligations under credit derivatives. Financial guaranty contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for financial guaranty insurance contracts and only occurs upon one or more defined credit events such as failure to pay or bankruptcy, in each case, as defined within the transaction documents, with respect to one or more third party referenced securities or loans. Financial guaranty contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are primarily comprised of credit default swaps (“CDS”). The Company’s credit derivative transactions are governed by International Swaps and Derivative Association, Inc. (“ISDA”) documentation. The Company has not entered into any new CDS in order to sell credit protection since the beginning of 2009, when regulatory guidelines were issued that limited the terms under which such protection could be sold. The capital and margin requirements applicable under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the “Dodd-Frank Act”) also contributed to the decision of the Company not to enter into such new CDS in the foreseeable future. The Company actively pursues opportunities to terminate existing CDS, which have the effect of reducing future fair value volatility in income and/or reducing rating agency capital charges.
Basis of Presentation
The unaudited interim consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and, in the opinion of management, reflect all adjustments that are of a normal recurring nature, necessary for a fair statement of the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the Company and its consolidated financial guaranty variable interest entities (“FG VIEs”) for the periods presented. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities as of the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements are as of June 30, 2013 and cover the three-month period ended June 30, 2013 ("Second Quarter 2013") and the three-month period ended June 30, 2012 ("Second Quarter
2012"), six-month period ended June 30, 2013 ("Six Months 2013") and the six-month period ended June 30, 2012 ("Six Months 2012"). Certain financial information that is normally included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP, but is not required for interim reporting purposes, has been condensed or omitted.The year-end balance sheet data was derived from audited financial statements.
The unaudited interim consolidated financial statements include the accounts of AGL and its direct and indirect subsidiaries (collectively, the “Subsidiaries”) and its consolidated FG VIEs. Intercompany accounts and transactions between and among all consolidated entities have been eliminated. Certain prior year balances have been reclassified to conform to the current year’s presentation.
These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements included in AGL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).
As of the date of this filing, following a series of transactions in July 2013 to capitalize a new insurance subsidiary, the Company's principal insurance company subsidiaries are:
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• | Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. ("AGM"), domiciled in New York; |
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• | Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC"), domiciled in Maryland; |
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• | Municipal Assurance Corporation ("MAC"), domiciled in New York, which commenced underwriting U.S. public finance business in August 2013; |
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• | Assured Guaranty (Europe) Ltd., organized in the United Kingdom; and |
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• | Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (“AG Re”), domiciled in Bermuda. |
The Company’s organizational structure includes various holdings companies, two of which — Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (“AGUS”) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (“AGMH”) — have public debt outstanding. See Note 15, Long Term Debt and Credit Facilities.
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2. | Business Changes and Accounting Developments |
Summarized below are updates of the most significant recent events that have had, or may have in the future, a material effect on the financial position, results of operations or business prospects of the Company.
Rating Actions
When a rating agency assigns a public rating to a financial obligation guaranteed by one of AGL’s insurance company subsidiaries, it generally awards that obligation the same rating it has assigned to the financial strength of the AGL subsidiary that provides the guaranty. Investors in products insured by AGL’s insurance company subsidiaries frequently rely on ratings published by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (“NRSROs”) because such ratings influence the trading value of securities and form the basis for many institutions’ investment guidelines as well as individuals’ bond purchase decisions. Therefore, the Company manages its business with the goal of achieving high financial strength ratings. If the financial strength ratings of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries were reduced below current levels, the Company expects it could have adverse effects on its future business opportunities as well as the premiums it could charge for its insurance policies and consequently, a further downgrade could harm the Company’s new business production and results of operations in a material respect. However, the models used by NRSROs differ, presenting conflicting goals that may make it inefficient or impractical to reach the highest rating level. The models are not fully transparent, contain subjective data (such as assumptions about future market demand for the Company’s products) and change frequently. Ratings reflect only the views of the respective NRSROs and are subject to continuous review and revision or withdrawal at any time.
In the last several years, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (“S&P”) and Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”) have downgraded the financial strength ratings of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries. On January 17, 2013, Moody’s downgraded the financial strength rating of AGM to A2 from Aa3, the financial strength rating of AGC to A3 from Aa3, and the financial strength rating of AG Re to Baa1 from A1. In the same rating action, Moody's also downgraded the senior unsecured debt ratings of AGUS and AGMH to Baa2 from A3. While the outlook for the ratings from S&P and Moody's is stable, there can be no assurance that S&P and Moody's will not take further action on the Company’s ratings. For a discussion of the effect of rating actions on the Company, see the following:
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• | Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid |
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• | Note 8, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives |
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• | Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures |
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• | Note 15, Long Term Debt and Credit Facilities (regarding the impact on the Company's insured leveraged lease transactions) |
In July 2013, MAC was assigned a financial strength rating of AA+ (stable outlook) from Kroll Bond Rating Agency and of AA- (stable outlook) from S&P.
Significant Transactions
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• | In 2013, the Company was authorized to repurchase a total of $315 million of its common shares. From this authorization, the Company repurchased 1.9 million common shares for a total of $39 million in first quarter 2013 and 9.6 million common shares for a total of $205 million in Second Quarter 2013, including 5.0 million common shares purchased on June 5, 2013 from funds associated with WL Ross & Co. LLC and its affiliates (collectively, the “WLR Funds”) and Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., a director of the Company, for $109.7 million. This share purchase reduced the WLR Funds’ and Mr. Ross’s ownership of Assured Guaranty’s common shares to approximately 14.9 million common shares, or to approximately 8% of Assured Guaranty’s total common shares outstanding, from approximately 10.5% of such outstanding common shares. The purchase of these shares was funded with existing funds and was part of Assured Guaranty’s previously announced common share repurchase plan. After giving effect to the share repurchases in first quarter 2013 and Second Quarter 2013, approximately $71 million remains available under the Company's common share repurchase authorization. |
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• | On May 6, 2013, the Company entered into an agreement with UBS Real Estate Securities Inc. and affiliates ("UBS") and a third party resolving the Company’s claims and liabilities related to specified residential mortgage-backed securities ("RMBS") transactions that were issued, underwritten or sponsored by UBS and insured by AGM or AGC under financial guaranty insurance policies. See Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid. |
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• | On June 21, 2013, AGM entered into a settlement agreement with Flagstar Bank in connection with its litigation for breach of contract against Flagstar on the Flagstar Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2005-1 and Series 2006-2 second lien transactions. The agreement followed judgments by the court in February and April 2013 in favor of AGM, which Flagstar had planned to appeal. As part of the settlement, AGM received a cash payment of $105 million and Flagstar withdrew its appeal. Flagstar also will reimburse AGM in full for all future claims on AGM’s financial guaranty insurance policies for such transactions. This settlement resolved all RMBS claims that AGM had asserted against Flagstar and each party agreed to release the other from any and all other future RMBS-related claims between them. |
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• | In August 2013, AGC entered into a settlement agreement with a representations and warranties ("R&W") provider that resolved AGC’s claims relating to specified RMBS transactions that AGC had insured and AGM reached an agreement in principle with a servicer of certain RMBS transactions that AGM had insured. |
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its insured portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also has utilized reinsurance by ceding business to third-party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 9, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. The outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented below include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.
Debt Service Outstanding
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Gross Debt Service Outstanding | | Net Debt Service Outstanding |
| June 30, 2013 | | December 31, 2012 | | June 30, 2013 | | December 31, 2012 |
| (in millions) |
Public finance | $ | 678,792 |
| | $ | 722,562 |
| | $ | 637,104 |
| | $ | 677,369 |
|
Structured finance | 97,754 |
| | 112,388 |
| | 90,893 |
| | 104,811 |
|
Total financial guaranty | $ | 776,546 |
| | $ | 834,950 |
| | $ | 727,997 |
| | $ | 782,180 |
|
In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance in force was approximately $148 million as of June 30, 2013. The net mortgage guaranty insurance in force is assumed excess of loss business written between 2004 and 2006 and comprises $137 million covering loans originated in Ireland and $11 million covering loans originated in the United Kingdom ("U.K.").
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of June 30, 2013
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Public Finance U.S. | | Public Finance Non-U.S. | | Structured Finance U.S | | Structured Finance Non-U.S | | Total |
Rating Category | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % |
| | (dollars in millions) |
AAA | | $ | 4,311 |
| | 1.2 | % | | $ | 1,657 |
| | 4.9 | % | | $ | 36,292 |
| | 55.5 | % | | $ | 11,079 |
| | 65.8 | % | | $ | 53,339 |
| | 11.0 | % |
AA | | 115,820 |
| | 31.2 |
| | 487 |
| | 1.4 |
| | 9,808 |
| | 15.0 |
| | 669 |
| | 4.0 |
| | 126,784 |
| | 26.0 |
|
A | | 202,440 |
| | 54.6 |
| | 8,965 |
| | 26.6 |
| | 2,872 |
| | 4.4 |
| | 863 |
| | 5.1 |
| | 215,140 |
| | 44.2 |
|
BBB | | 43,554 |
| | 11.7 |
| | 20,701 |
| | 61.5 |
| | 3,526 |
| | 5.4 |
| | 2,313 |
| | 13.7 |
| | 70,094 |
| | 14.4 |
|
Below-investment-grade (“BIG”) | | 4,930 |
| | 1.3 |
| | 1,890 |
| | 5.6 |
| | 12,898 |
| | 19.7 |
| | 1,914 |
| | 11.4 |
| | 21,632 |
| | 4.4 |
|
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 371,055 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 33,700 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 65,396 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 16,838 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 486,989 |
| | 100.0 | % |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2012
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Public Finance U.S. | | Public Finance Non-U.S. | | Structured Finance U.S | | Structured Finance Non-U.S | | Total |
Rating Category | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % |
| | (dollars in millions) |
AAA | | $ | 4,502 |
| | 1.2 | % | | $ | 1,706 |
| | 4.5 | % | | $ | 42,187 |
| | 56.5 | % | | $ | 13,169 |
| | 66.8 | % | | $ | 61,564 |
| | 11.9 | % |
AA | | 124,525 |
| | 32.1 |
| | 875 |
| | 2.3 |
| | 9,589 |
| | 12.8 |
| | 722 |
| | 3.7 |
| | 135,711 |
| | 26.1 |
|
A | | 210,124 |
| | 54.1 |
| | 9,781 |
| | 26.1 |
| | 4,670 |
| | 6.2 |
| | 1,409 |
| | 7.2 |
| | 225,984 |
| | 43.4 |
|
BBB | | 44,213 |
| | 11.4 |
| | 22,885 |
| | 61.0 |
| | 3,717 |
| | 5.0 |
| | 2,427 |
| | 12.3 |
| | 73,242 |
| | 14.1 |
|
BIG | | 4,603 |
| | 1.2 |
| | 2,293 |
| | 6.1 |
| | 14,532 |
| | 19.5 |
| | 1,964 |
| | 10.0 |
| | 23,392 |
| | 4.5 |
|
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 387,967 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 37,540 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 74,695 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 19,691 |
| | 100.0 | % | | $ | 519,893 |
| | 100.0 | % |
The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized, or expected to be collateralized, by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.
Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes, which are generally rated BIG, represented $1,193 million and $1,133 million of gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the referenced obligations in such contracts have been delivered to the Company and
recorded in other invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $219 million and $220 million in gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively.
In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $1.0 billion for structured finance and $1.5 billion for public finance obligations at June 30, 2013. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of pooled corporate and other transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between July 1, 2013 and February 25, 2017, with $1.4 billion expiring prior to December 31, 2013. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.
Economic Exposure to the Selected European Countries
Several European countries continue to experience significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The European countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (the “Selected European Countries”). The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in Selected European Countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist. Published reports have identified countries that may be experiencing reduced demand for their sovereign debt in the current environment. The Company selected these European countries based on these reports and its view that their credit fundamentals are deteriorating. The Company’s economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table net of ceded reinsurance.
Net Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
June 30, 2013
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Greece | | Hungary (2) | | Ireland | | Italy | | Portugal | | Spain (2) | | Total |
| (in millions) |
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Public finance | $ | — |
| | $ | — |
| | $ | — |
| | $ | 981 |
| | $ | 102 |
| | $ | 261 |
| | $ | 1,344 |
|
Infrastructure finance | — |
| | 413 |
| | 23 |
| | 83 |
| | 97 |
| | 167 |
| | 783 |
|
Sub-total | — |
| | 413 |
| | 23 |
| | 1,064 |
| | 199 |
| | 428 |
| | 2,127 |
|
Non-sovereign exposure: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Regulated utilities | — |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 215 |
| | — |
| | 0 |
| | 215 |
|
RMBS | — |
| | 214 |
| | 137 |
| | 479 |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 830 |
|
Commercial receivables | — |
| | 1 |
| | 12 |
| | 59 |
| | 14 |
| | 3 |
| | 89 |
|
Pooled corporate | 22 |
| | — |
| | 172 |
| | 224 |
| | 15 |
| | 499 |
| | 932 |
|
Sub-total | 22 |
| | 215 |
| | 321 |
| | 977 |
| | 29 |
| | 502 |
| | 2,066 |
|
Total | $ | 22 |
| | $ | 628 |
| | $ | 344 |
| | $ | 2,041 |
| | $ | 228 |
| | $ | 930 |
| | $ | 4,193 |
|
Total BIG | $ | — |
| | $ | 591 |
| | $ | 7 |
| | $ | 2 |
| | $ | 118 |
| | $ | 412 |
| | $ | 1,130 |
|
____________________
(1) While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, including U.S. dollars, Euros and British pounds sterling. Included in the table above is $137 million of reinsurance assumed on a 2004 - 2006 pool of Irish residential mortgages that is part of the Company’s remaining legacy mortgage reinsurance business. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.
| |
(2) | See Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid. |
When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. For direct exposure this can be a relatively straight-forward determination as, for example, a debt issue supported by availability payments for a toll road in a particular country. The Company may also
assign portions of a risk to more than one geographic location. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies. In the case of assumed business for direct exposures, the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.
The Company has included in the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through exposure it provides on (a) pooled corporate and (b) commercial receivables transactions. The Company considers economic exposure to a selected European Country to be indirect when the exposure relates to only a small portion of an insured transaction that otherwise is not related to a Selected European Country. In most instances, the trustees and/or servicers for such transactions provide reports that identify the domicile of the underlying obligors in the pool, although occasionally such information is not available to the Company. The Company has reviewed transactions through which it believes it may have indirect exposure to the Selected European Countries that is material to the transaction and included in the tables above the proportion of the insured par equal to the proportion of obligors so identified as being domiciled in a Selected European Country. The Company may also have indirect exposures to Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies. However, in the case of assumed business for indirect exposures, unaffiliated primary insurers generally do not provide such information to the Company.
The Company no longer guarantees any sovereign bonds of the Selected European Countries. The exposure shown in the “Public Finance Category” is from transactions backed by receivable payments from sub-sovereigns in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Sub-sovereign debt is debt issued by a governmental entity or government backed entity, or supported by such an entity, that is other than direct sovereign debt of the ultimate governing body of the country.
Surveillance Categories
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies.
The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit rating of the transactions are used. The Company models most assumed RMBS credits with par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a lifetime loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects “lifetime losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the life of that transaction than it ultimately will have reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk-free rate is used for recording of reserves for financial statement purposes.)
More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The three BIG categories are:
| |
• | BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category. |
| |
• | BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. |
| |
• | BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. |
Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of June 30, 2013
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| BIG Net Par Outstanding | | Net Par | | BIG Net Par as a % of Total Net Par |
| BIG 1 | | BIG 2 | | BIG 3 | | Total BIG | | Outstanding | | Outstanding |
| | | | | (in millions) | | | | | | |
First lien U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Prime first lien | $ | 26 |
| | $ | 406 |
| | $ | 10 |
| | $ | 442 |
| | $ | 595 |
| | 0.1 | % |
Alt-A first lien | 94 |
| | 1,834 |
| | 1,394 |
| | 3,322 |
| | 4,258 |
| | 0.7 |
|
Option ARM | 17 |
| | 369 |
| | 314 |
| | 700 |
| | 1,212 |
| | 0.1 |
|
Subprime | 168 |
| | 1,162 |
| | 1,023 |
| | 2,353 |
| | 6,894 |
| | 0.5 |
|
Second lien U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Closed end second lien | — |
| | 20 |
| | 301 |
| | 321 |
| | 428 |
| | 0.1 |
|
Home equity lines of credit (“HELOCs”) | 130 |
| | 24 |
| | 2,326 |
| | 2,480 |
| | 2,881 |
| | 0.5 |
|
Total U.S. RMBS | 435 |
| | 3,815 |
| | 5,368 |
| | 9,618 |
| | 16,268 |
| | 2.0 |
|
Trust preferred securities (“TruPS”) | 1,488 |
| | — |
| | 924 |
| | 2,412 |
| | 5,223 |
| | 0.5 |
|
Other structured finance | 1,177 |
| | 439 |
| | 1,166 |
| | 2,782 |
| | 60,743 |
| | 0.5 |
|
U.S. public finance | 3,389 |
| | 659 |
| | 882 |
| | 4,930 |
| | 371,055 |
| | 1.0 |
|
Non-U.S. public finance | 992 |
| | 898 |
| | — |
| | 1,890 |
| | 33,700 |
| | 0.4 |
|
Total | $ | 7,481 |
| | $ | 5,811 |
| | $ | 8,340 |
| | $ | 21,632 |
| | $ | 486,989 |
| | 4.4 | % |
Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2012
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| BIG Net Par Outstanding | | Net Par | | BIG Net Par as a % of Total Net Par |
| BIG 1 | | BIG 2 | | BIG 3 | | Total BIG | | Outstanding | | Outstanding |
| | | | | (in millions) | | | | | | |
First lien U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Prime first lien | $ | 28 |
| | $ | 436 |
| | $ | 11 |
| | $ | 475 |
| | $ | 641 |
| | 0.1 | % |
Alt-A first lien | 109 |
| | 1,987 |
| | 1,479 |
| | 3,575 |
| | 4,589 |
| | 0.7 |
|
Option ARM | 61 |
| | 392 |
| | 643 |
| | 1,096 |
| | 1,550 |
| | 0.2 |
|
Subprime (including net interest margin securities) | 152 |
| | 1,161 |
| | 1,024 |
| | 2,337 |
| | 7,330 |
| | 0.4 |
|
Second lien U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Closed end second lien | — |
| | 247 |
| | 157 |
| | 404 |
| | 521 |
| | 0.1 |
|
HELOCs | 91 |
| | — |
| | 2,627 |
| | 2,718 |
| | 3,196 |
| | 0.5 |
|
Total U.S. RMBS | 441 |
| | 4,223 |
| | 5,941 |
| | 10,605 |
| | 17,827 |
| | 2.0 |
|
TruPS | 1,920 |
| | — |
| | 952 |
| | 2,872 |
| | 5,693 |
| | 0.6 |
|
Other structured finance | 1,310 |
| | 384 |
| | 1,325 |
| | 3,019 |
| | 70,866 |
| | 0.6 |
|
U.S. public finance | 3,290 |
| | 500 |
| | 813 |
| | 4,603 |
| | 387,967 |
| | 0.9 |
|
Non-U.S. public finance | 2,293 |
| | — |
| | — |
| | 2,293 |
| | 37,540 |
| | 0.4 |
|
Total | $ | 9,254 |
| | $ | 5,107 |
| | $ | 9,031 |
| | $ | 23,392 |
| | $ | 519,893 |
| | 4.5 | % |
Below-Investment-Grade Credits
By Category
As of June 30, 2013
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | Number of Risks(2) |
Description | | Financial Guaranty Insurance(1) | | Credit Derivative | | Total | | Financial Guaranty Insurance(1) | | Credit Derivative | | Total |
| | (dollars in millions) |
BIG: | | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Category 1 | | $ | 5,976 |
| | $ | 1,505 |
| | $ | 7,481 |
| | 144 |
| | 27 |
| | 171 |
|
Category 2 | | 3,309 |
| | 2,502 |
| | 5,811 |
| | 83 |
| | 25 |
| | 108 |
|
Category 3 | | 6,549 |
| | 1,791 |
| | 8,340 |
| | 148 |
| | 31 |
| | 179 |
|
Total BIG | | $ | 15,834 |
| | $ | 5,798 |
| | $ | 21,632 |
| | 375 |
| | 83 |
| | 458 |
|
Below-Investment-Grade Credits
By Category
As of December 31, 2012
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | Number of Risks(2) |
Description | | Financial Guaranty Insurance(1) | | Credit Derivative | | Total | | Financial Guaranty Insurance(1) | | Credit Derivative | | Total |
| | (dollars in millions) |
BIG: | | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Category 1 | | $ | 7,049 |
| | $ | 2,205 |
| | $ | 9,254 |
| | 153 |
| | 30 |
| | 183 |
|
Category 2 | | 2,606 |
| | 2,501 |
| | 5,107 |
| | 76 |
| | 27 |
| | 103 |
|
Category 3 | | 7,028 |
| | 2,003 |
| | 9,031 |
| | 142 |
| | 32 |
| | 174 |
|
Total BIG | | $ | 16,683 |
| | $ | 6,709 |
| | $ | 23,392 |
| | 371 |
| | 89 |
| | 460 |
|
_____________________
(1) Includes net par outstanding for FG VIEs.
| |
(2) | A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments. |
| |
4. | Financial Guaranty Insurance Premiums |
The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, includes financial guaranty contracts that meet the definition of insurance contracts as well as those that meet the definition of a derivative under GAAP. Amounts presented in this note relate only to financial guaranty insurance contracts. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for a discussion of credit derivative revenues.
Net Earned Premiums
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Second Quarter | | Six Months |
| 2013 | | 2012 | | 2013 | | 2012 |
| (in millions) |
Scheduled net earned premiums | $ | 113 |
| | $ | 145 |
| | $ | 241 |
| | $ | 297 |
|
Acceleration of premium earnings | 46 |
| | 68 |
| | 159 |
| | 105 |
|
Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable | 3 |
| | 6 |
| | 10 |
| | 11 |
|
Total financial guaranty insurance | 162 |
| | 219 |
| | 410 |
| | 413 |
|
Other | 1 |
| | 0 |
| | 1 |
| | 0 |
|
Total net earned premiums(1) | $ | 163 |
| | $ | 219 |
| | $ | 411 |
| | $ | 413 |
|
___________________
| |
(1) | Excludes $15 million and $16 million for Second Quarter 2013 and 2012, respectively, and $33 million and $33 million for the Six Months 2013 and 2012, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs. |
Components of Unearned Premium Reserve
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| As of June 30, 2013 | | As of December 31, 2012 |
| Gross | | Ceded | | Net(1) | | Gross | | Ceded | | Net(1) |
| (in millions) |
Deferred premium revenue: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial guaranty | $ | 4,941 |
| | $ | 533 |
| | $ | 4,408 |
| | $ | 5,349 |
| | $ | 586 |
| | $ | 4,763 |
|
Other | 6 |
| | — |
| | 6 |
| | 7 |
| | — |
| | 7 |
|
Total deferred premium revenue | $ | 4,947 |
| | $ | 533 |
| | $ | 4,414 |
| | $ | 5,356 |
| | $ | 586 |
| | $ | 4,770 |
|
Contra-paid | (135 | ) | | (23 | ) | | (112 | ) | | (149 | ) | | (25 | ) | | (124 | ) |
Total | $ | 4,812 |
| | $ | 510 |
| | $ | 4,302 |
| | $ | 5,207 |
| | $ | 561 |
| | $ | 4,646 |
|
____________________
| |
(1) | Excludes $210 million and $262 million of deferred premium revenue, and $58 million and $98 million of contra-paid related to FG VIEs as of June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively. |
Gross Premium Receivable, Net of Ceding Commissions Roll Forward
|
| | | | | | | |
| Six Months |
| 2013 | | 2012 |
| (in millions) |
Balance beginning of period | $ | 1,005 |
| | $ | 1,003 |
|
Premium written, net of ceding commissions | 32 |
| | 103 |
|
Premium payments received, net of ceding commissions | (109 | ) | | (167 | ) |
Adjustments: | | | |
Changes in the expected term of financial guaranty insurance contracts | 1 |
| | 19 |
|
Accretion of discount, net of ceding commissions | 13 |
| | 13 |
|
Foreign exchange translation | (27 | ) | | (1 | ) |
Consolidation of FG VIEs | — |
| | (5 | ) |
Other adjustments | — |
| | (1 | ) |
Balance, end of period (1) | $ | 915 |
| | $ | 964 |
|
____________________
| |
(1) | Excludes $20 million and $32 million as of June 30, 2013 and June 30, 2012, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs. |
Gains or losses due to foreign exchange rate changes relate to installment premium receivables denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Approximately 46%, 47% and 49% of installment premiums at June 30, 2013, December 31, 2012 and June 30, 2012, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily Euro and British Pound Sterling.
The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections may differ from expected collections in the tables below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations and changes in expected lives.
Expected Collections of Gross Premiums Receivable,
Net of Ceding Commissions (Undiscounted)
|
| | | |
| June 30, 2013 |
| (in millions) |
2013 (July 1 – September 30) | $ | 39 |
|
2013 (October 1 – December 31) | 34 |
|
2014 | 104 |
|
2015 | 91 |
|
2016 | 85 |
|
2017 | 78 |
|
2018-2022 | 307 |
|
2023-2027 | 190 |
|
2028-2032 | 129 |
|
After 2032 | 147 |
|
Total(1) | $ | 1,204 |
|
____________________
| |
(1) | Excludes expected cash collections on FG VIEs of $25 million. |
Scheduled Net Earned Premiums
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
|
| | | |
| As of June 30, 2013 |
| (in millions) |
2013 (July 1 - September 30) | $ | 119 |
|
2013 (October 1–December 31) | 113 |
|
Subtotal 2013 | 232 |
|
2014 | 427 |
|
2015 | 374 |
|
2016 | 338 |
|
2017 | 302 |
|
2018 - 2022 | 1,161 |
|
2023 - 2027 | 731 |
|
2028 - 2032 | 436 |
|
After 2032 | 407 |
|
Total present value basis(1) | 4,408 |
|
Discount | 247 |
|
Total future value | $ | 4,655 |
|
____________________
| |
(1) | Excludes scheduled net earned premiums on consolidated FG VIEs of $210 million. |
Selected Information for Policies Paid in Installments
|
| | | | | | | |
| As of June 30, 2013 | | As of December 31, 2012 |
| (dollars in millions) |
Premiums receivable, net of ceding commission payable | $ | 915 |
| | $ | 1,005 |
|
Gross deferred premium revenue | 1,725 |
| | 1,908 |
|
Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums | 3.4 | % | | 3.5 | % |
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years) | 9.4 |
| | 9.6 |
|
| |
5. | Expected Loss to be Paid |
The following table presents a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts, whether accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives or FG VIEs, by sector after the benefit for contractual and expected breaches of R&W. The Company used weighted average risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations, which ranged from 0.0% to 4.03% as of June 30, 2013 and 0.0% to 3.28% as of December 31, 2012.
Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward
Second Quarter 2013
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of March 31, 2013 | | Economic Loss Development | | (Paid) Recovered Losses(1) | | Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of June 30, 2013 |
| (in millions) |
U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
First lien: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Prime first lien | $ | 11 |
| | $ | 7 |
| | $ | — |
| | $ | 18 |
|
Alt-A first lien | 313 |
| | (7 | ) | | (18 | ) | | 288 |
|
Option ARM | (327 | ) | | 21 |
| | 286 |
| | (20 | ) |
Subprime | 263 |
| | 23 |
| | (12 | ) | | 274 |
|
Total first lien | 260 |
| | 44 |
| | 256 |
| | 560 |
|
Second lien: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Closed-end second lien | (21 | ) | | 6 |
| | 1 |
| | (14 | ) |
HELOCs | (122 | ) | | (31 | ) | | 56 |
| | (97 | ) |
Total second lien | (143 | ) | | (25 | ) | | 57 |
| | (111 | ) |
Total U.S. RMBS | 117 |
| | 19 |
| | 313 |
| | 449 |
|
TruPS | 23 |
| | 1 |
| | 9 |
| | 33 |
|
Other structured finance | 307 |
| | (24 | ) | | (125 | ) | | 158 |
|
U.S. public finance | (9 | ) | | 87 |
| | (7 | ) | | 71 |
|
Non-U.S public finance | 62 |
| | 4 |
| | — |
| | 66 |
|
Other | (13 | ) | | — |
| | 10 |
| | (3 | ) |
Total | $ | 487 |
| | $ | 87 |
| | $ | 200 |
| | $ | 774 |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward
Second Quarter 2012
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of March 31, 2012 | | Economic Loss Development | | (Paid) Recovered Losses(1) | | Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of June 30, 2012 |
| (in millions) |
U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
First lien: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Prime first lien | $ | 2 |
| | $ | 2 |
| | $ | — |
| | $ | 4 |
|
Alt-A first lien | 268 |
| | 15 |
| | 38 |
| | 321 |
|
Option ARM | 119 |
| | 11 |
| | (127 | ) | | 3 |
|
Subprime | 248 |
| | 10 |
| | (22 | ) | | 236 |
|
Total first lien | 637 |
| | 38 |
| | (111 | ) | | 564 |
|
Second lien: | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien | (101 | ) | | (1 | ) | | 73 |
| | (29 | ) |
HELOCs | (43 | ) | | 14 |
| | (35 | ) | | (64 | ) |
Total second lien | (144 | ) | | 13 |
| | 38 |
| | (93 | ) |
Total U.S. RMBS | 493 |
| | 51 |
| | (73 | ) | | 471 |
|
TruPS | 58 |
| | (7 | ) | | (1 | ) | | 50 |
|
Other structured finance | 296 |
| | 32 |
| | (8 | ) | | 320 |
|
U.S. public finance | 33 |
| | 35 |
| | (9 | ) | | 59 |
|
Non-U.S public finance | 303 |
| | (16 | ) | | 15 |
| | 302 |
|
Other | 2 |
| | (6 | ) | | — |
| | (4 | ) |
Total | $ | 1,185 |
| | $ | 89 |
| | $ | (76 | ) | | $ | 1,198 |
|
Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward
Six Months 2013
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of December 31, 2012 | | Economic Loss Development | | (Paid) Recovered Losses(1) | | Net Expected Loss to be Paid as of June 30, 2013 |
| (in millions) |
U.S. RMBS: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
First lien: | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|
Prime first lien | $ | 6 |
| | $ | 13 |
| | $ | (1 | ) | | $ | 18 |
|
Alt-A first lien | 315 |
| | 2 |
| | (29 | ) | | 288 |
|
Option ARM | (131 | ) | | (117 | ) | | 228 |
| | (20 | ) |
Subprime | 242 |
| | 48 |
| | (16 | ) | | 274 |
|
Total first lien | 432 |
| | (54 | ) | | 182 |
| | 560 |
|
Second lien: | | | | | | | |
Closed-end second lien | (39 | ) | | 7 |
| | 18 |
| | (14 | ) |
HELOCs | (111 | ) | | (34 | ) | | 48 |
| | (97 | ) |
Total second lien | (150 | ) | | (27 | ) | | 66 |
| | (111 | ) |
Total U.S. RMBS | 282 |
| | (81 | ) | | 248 |
| | 449 |
|
TruPS | 27 |
| | (2 | ) | | 8 |
| | 33 |
|
Other structured finance | 312 |
| | (26 | ) |