Individuals are entering a year where risk feels faster, more personal, and harder to spot. The mix has changed. Fewer threats look like a break-in. More look like a simple mistake, a rushed approval, or a believable message that pushes someone to act.

Recent data helps explain the pressure. The IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2024 puts the global average breach cost at USD $4.88 million. Verizon reports that 68% of breaches involve a non-malicious human element, and ransomware accounts for 32% of breaches. Verizon also reported a nearly 3X surge in vulnerability exploitation, measured as a 180% increase.

Against that backdrop, individuals often assume safety is mostly a tech problem. It is not. It is a governance problem too. The personal version of governance is how people make decisions, set rules, and stick to them.

Early warning signs are being ignored. The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025 notes that 71% of chief risk officers anticipated severe organizational disruptions due to cyber risks and criminal activity. And at the macro level, Cybersecurity Ventures continues to project cybercrime at USD $10.5 trillion in 2025.

What changed recently

Speed is the headline. Threats now scale through routine channels and normal work patterns.

The volume is also real. Verizon’s 2024 DBIR analysis covered 30,458 security incidents and 10,626 confirmed breaches. That size matters because it means patterns harden fast and get reused.

Losses are rising in official tallies too. Reuters reported the FBI said cybercrime costs rose to at least $16 billion in 2024, based on nearly 860,000 complaints to the Internet Crime Complaint Center.

What people are getting wrong

Many individuals still rely on confidence instead of process. They trust their instincts, then move fast.

“Early in my career, I watched a small issue turn into a national headline because no one wanted to escalate it.”

People also over-focus on tools and under-focus on habits. They add a new app. They skip the hard part, which is slowing down when it counts.

“In intelligence work, the biggest failures happen when people dismiss small signals. A strange pattern in data. A rumor. A minor breach.”

Another common miss is treating practice as optional. People only learn under stress, when it is too late.

“In policing, we trained constantly. You do not wait for a crisis to test your system. You practice before it counts.”

What is likely to get harder in the next year

First, believable fraud that uses normal behavior. It will target routine approvals, family payments, job changes, and vendor updates.

Second, time pressure. More requests will come with urgency baked in, because urgency short-circuits judgment.

Third, spillover. When a big event hits a company, partners, contractors, families, and customers often get pulled into the mess.

Ransomware is not going away either. Verizon’s DBIR puts it at 32% of breaches, and it shows up across most industries.

What will work

The most reliable fix is boring on purpose. Simple rules that remove choice in high-risk moments.

“When I moved into corporate leadership, I stopped talking about threats first. I talked about downtime. Insurance costs. Regulatory exposure. Once you frame risk in business language, boards pay attention.”

For individuals, the equivalent is framing risk in life language: time, money, stress, and recovery.

Here are approaches that still hold up:

• Use two-step verification on accounts that matter most

• Keep a separate approval step for money moves

• Confirm requests using a second channel, not the one that delivered the request

• Treat urgency as a red flag, not a reason to speed up

• Track small anomalies, even if they feel harmless

• Run short “what if” drills for common scenarios: lost phone, hacked email, a fake invoice, a compromised card

“When officers felt leadership cared about preparation, they trained harder. The same applies in business. When boards show interest in security, teams respond.”

Individuals can do the same for themselves. Make preparation part of the routine, not a reaction.

3 scenarios for the next year, and the best individual actions

Optimistic scenario: Better awareness, fewer major disruptions

What it looks like: Fewer high-impact incidents in your life, and faster recovery when something goes wrong.

Best individual actions:

• Set a monthly 20-minute “account check” routine

• Turn on two-step verification for email, banking, and primary social accounts

• Create a simple personal escalation rule: if money, identity, or access is involved, pause and verify

Realistic scenario: More attempts, some close calls

What it looks like: More convincing messages, more strange prompts, more near misses.

Best individual actions:

• Add a two-person check for large transfers or sensitive changes, even within a household

• Use a written checklist for payments and account changes

• Keep a “trusted contact list” for verification, separate from your main email account

Cautious scenario: A major incident hits your household or workplace

What it looks like: A compromised account, financial loss, or a wider incident that affects your employer, vendor, or community.

Best individual actions:

• Freeze your credit where available, or set strong alerts with your bank and credit provider

• Store recovery codes offline for key accounts

• Prepare a rapid response folder: IDs, bank numbers, key contacts, and a step-by-step plan for account recovery

• Assume the first message after an incident could be fake, and verify before acting

Choose one scenario: optimistic, realistic, or cautious. Then follow the recommended steps for that path this week. Put the first action on your calendar, keep it simple, and repeat it monthly.

About Frank Elsner

Frank Elsner is Chief of Safety and Security for the Natural Factors Group of Companies in Vancouver, British Columbia. He has over 30 years of policing experience, including seven years as a Chief of Police, and has worked in undercover, investigative, intelligence, tactical, and senior leadership roles. He also leads Umbra Strategic Solutions, providing security solutions for local and international organizations.

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