ReturnPro’s survey finds 57% of retailers face low inventory, 75% expect fraud to rise, and most are delaying promotions to later in the season.

Retailers are heading into Holiday 2025 with a new set of pressures, according to ReturnPro’s 5^th Annual Holiday Returns Report. The survey of 500 senior retail executives at companies generating $500M+ in annual revenue revealed:

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• Inventory remains constrained: Over half (57%) of retailers cite low stock as a moderate-to-severe problem heading into the holidays.
• Fraud risk continues to rise: 75% of retailers say return fraud worsens during the holidays, most often involving shoplifted goods, used-but-non-defective items, or fraudulent tender.
• Tariff pressures are intensifying: More than one-third (69%) of retailers are more stressed about tariffs now than they were in March.
• Sales expectations are cautiously optimistic: Over half (52%) expect more holiday sales growth in 2025 than in years prior, attributing the growth to increased prices, not volume.
• Promotional calendars are shifting: Just 16% began sales in August or earlier, compared to 31% last year, with most activity now concentrated in September (28%) and October (35%).
• Returns are seen as more manageable: Only 6% of retailers now call returns a severe problem, down from 49% in 2023.

“The holiday season is always a test for retailers, but this year the stakes are higher because of tighter inventory, rising fraud risks, and growing consumer expectations for instant, frictionless returns,” said Sender Shamiss, Co-Founder and CEO of ReturnPro. “Companies that view returns not just as a cost center, but as a lever for recovery, customer loyalty, and operational discipline will be the ones positioned for success during the 2025 holiday season.”

While topline sales remain resilient, broader industry data reflects emerging headwinds. Retail sales were up 3.9% year-over-year as of July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, but the National Retail Federation projects growth will slow to 2.7%-3.7% for the year, down from 3.6% in 2024. Inflation, tariffs, and shifting consumer behavior continue to weigh on both demand and retailer planning.

ReturnPro’s report shows that while retailers are tightening policies and testing new fraud controls, returns remain a powerful differentiator. The report found that, on average, a typical shopper sent back more than $51 worth of goods last holiday season, and for many retailers the figure exceeded $100 per person. The winners in Holiday 2025 will be those that turn this challenge into an opportunity — using technology and recommerce to protect margins, build loyalty, and keep products in circulation.

Access the full report here: [2025 Holiday Returns Report]

About ReturnPro:

Co-founded in 2008, ReturnPro helps retailers, brands, and 3P sellers SOLVE RETURNS by addressing every part of the post-purchase experience from returns initiation all the way to the second shelf. We offer a connected suite of returns management SaaS, reverse supply chain, and ReCommerce services, under one roof, to deliver extraordinary results, boost revenue, drive efficiency, reduce environmental impact, and increase customer satisfaction. ReturnPro works with retailers, eCommerce brands, and vendors, to deliver the smartest choices for every touch, movement, and pricing decision, while also preventing items from unnecessarily ending up in landfills.

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