The presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tied in Michigan, a state widely seen as a "must have" for Democrats. Harris exceeds President Joe Biden’s performance among some key voting blocs, and that makes it a dead-even race for the first time this year, according to a Fox News survey of Michigan voters conducted after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Harris and Trump each garner 49% support. Trump was ahead of Biden by 3 points in April and by 2 points in February. In the wake of being unofficially embraced as the party’s nominee, Harris received higher support than Biden did in April, while Trump’s number held steady despite the survey being conducted soon after the Republican National Convention and a failed assassination attempt.
Here’s why the race is a tossup: Men favor Trump by 13 points, while women back Harris by 12. Voters ages 45 and over prefer Trump by 2 points, but Harris is the choice among voters under 35 by 5 points. Whites without a college degree pick Trump by 15 points, while Whites with a degree go for Harris by 3 points and voters of color back her by 39 points.
Harris also receives support from union households (+6 points), and she trails by only 9 points among those who "somewhat" disapprove of Biden’s job performance.
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Other groups backing Trump include Independents (+8 points), rural voters (+20), and White evangelical Christians (+48).
Compared to Biden in April, Harris performs better with Democrats (by 3 points), men (+5), Whites without a college degree (+6), Black voters (+7), voters under age 35 (+ 12), and those with negative views of both Biden and Trump (double haters +23). She does worse than Biden among voters ages 65 and over (-3 points) and suburban women (-2).
"Harris does slightly better with some key Democratic constituencies and heightened enthusiasm on the left is real," says Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "However, Democrats were completely depressed over Biden, and he was hemorrhaging support among young people and nonwhites, so it’s a pretty low bar."
Overall, 7 in 10 say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, and they back Trump over Harris by 1 point.
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About 5 in 10 Michigan voters say they are falling behind financially, while almost 4 in 10 are holding steady, and 1 in 10 are getting ahead. Those numbers are mostly unchanged since April.
The economy dominates for Michigan voters, as more than twice as many (35%) say it will be the most important issue to their vote as say the same about immigration (17%) and abortion (16%). All other issues rank in the single digits.
Trump is favored among those voting on immigration (+79) and the economy (+31), while those prioritizing abortion prefer Harris (+68).
In a potential expanded ballot, Harris trails Trump by 2 points (43-45%), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each. In April, Trump also topped Biden by 2 points, with Kennedy at 9%.
Kennedy gets a touch more backing from those who support Trump (8%) than Harris (6%).
Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 2.78 percentage points and received 50.62 percent of the vote. The new survey finds 43% of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 56% disapprove -- including 14% of those who voted for him in 2020.
Most, 79%, approve of Biden’s decision to abandon his re-election bid and nearly two-thirds want him to finish his term. Those numbers are even higher among Democrats, as nearly 9 in 10 both approve of him leaving the race and want him to stay in office.
Seven in 10 Michigan Democrats want Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee, while 2 in 10 favor their governor, Gretchen Whitmer, for the role.
However, Whitmer outperforms Harris in a potential 2-way matchup against Trump, besting him by a 6-point margin (52-46%). She receives more support than Harris among White voters (by 3 points), women (+3), non-college Whites (+4), and Independents (+6).
Whitmer is also the only one in the survey with a positive personal rating. A 56% majority of Michigan voters has a favorable opinion of her, while 42% view her negatively for a net +14 points. All others are underwater, including Harris (-4 points), Trump (-5), and GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance (-10). One in five Michigan voters are unable to rate Vance.
Since April, Biden’s favorable rating has slipped, going from negative by 16 points to negative by 20 today. Trump’s rating, on the other hand, has improved by 3 points over the same period.
Four years ago this month, Biden’s favorability was +11 and Trump’s was -10 (July 2020).
"While the race might not look much different based on the horserace, Democrats are clearly in a better position with Harris at the top of the ticket," says Anderson. "Biden had become deeply unpopular in Michigan, but now Democrats can hit the reset button with a candidate with the exact same favorability as Trump and who is capable of campaigning vigorously."
Poll-pourri
In the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by a 5-point margin, 51-46%. The Michigan primary is Aug. 6.
Some 9% of Trump supporters defect to Slotkin, while 5% of those backing Harris switch parties to support Rogers.
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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,012 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (117) and cellphones (647) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (248). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
