The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj83RDeLwQiYqF2p3MP_F4ad0AUIM0iWbrMiwB3bVGp9HqwtJvdp3eLAKKA1c_qseDS0X3fBNpR30lsJ7iX1f6XzCGTAChVwkDeMaL6WxL9QWj5GpoAdg3F8Soffg9UBeaYAa625uKQAmCu0MeDLhfB6cnmmQQ4w9Xg5rAuyY1YF6U3zIOHxG9EbwngA/w400-h290/Trend%20Model%20perf.png)
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2kNYdbGgL3Zd-fVUnrb6SE9vbMpdwNyvEkh80Dijo6-fPsfIGDWhEXAvKAG-4slxUsWAsjcQZtY7l8h0XPHJaavORuJToAmLEZzql55GzUkFPb71zTirTyw5VIohOn0k0ZpCimsB8JWbKfmZkAMB4ux75CfN0mzwU2ox1JzMDjLHQ5cnMZbtzOREtIQ/w400-h291/Inner%20Trader.png)
- Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on Twitter at @humblestudent and on Mastodon at @humblestudent@toot.community. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A mystery chart
As investors search for evidence of market leadership, here is a mystery chart of constructive patterns of a closely related group. The chart shows patterns of either upside breakouts or pending breakouts out of long multi-year bases.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8anPezMQ_c62JdE6_v7EHxVzpboz1gOl5QrbPhM0_d43jTjx9NiHdVH4P1iFAXqUryoE__UglWF57jZEHpOrvdJfo_dK2CuELFmOIlqKGUrvudg8HGuA31fgur2Ukt3FcRZDg2Pya5IV5BsZHJ-IQK-J9mv0HKvE2iRIqoUhsv0ReITgTjRShefQIRA/w400-h400/mystery%20chart.png)
Can you guess what they are? The full post can be found here.