In fourteen hundred and ninety two,
Columbus sailed the ocean blue – and got totally lost, missed India by 6,000 miles but called the Native American Islanders Indians anyway, slaughtered them and stole their gold and, lacking any real wealth to go back to Spain with, instituted a slave trade that lasted 250 years and ruined the lives of tens millions of people. Yay!
That was essentially my daughter's 7th grade (2012) report on Columbus and, though I was called in to the Principal's office at the time for giving my children heretical opinions, it's no longer shocking for people to hear the truth about the colonization of America. We want Russians to question Marx and Lennin and we want the Chinese to question Mao so why shouldn't our own children question Columbus and Jefferson? Either you want to raise critical thinkers or you don't, right?
There aren't many critical thinkers playing the markets these days. On Wednesday we get our second to last FOMC decision for the year but Friday's poor jobs report has given them cover to hold off on raising rates or even tapering yet again. Oil is back at $81.50 on Goldman Sach's call of a strong rebound in demand but, just this weekend, GS has dropped their Q3 GDP Forecast to 3.25% and Q4 is now down to 4.5% and next year is down around 3% – HALF of what it was!
The Atlanta Fed agrees with Goldman and their forecast has come all the way down to 1.25% for Q3 – and they are the ones who get the reports while the Leading Economorons they consult for the "consensus" forecast are still raising their expections – now up to 6.5% for Q3. Q3 ended on September 30th – how can there be this much dispute as to what actually happened?
Those rising expectations come from the same people you are subscribing to in market newsletters and following in newspapers and magazines and listening to on the radio and on TV so of course you are forgiven for thinking that we are better off economically than we actually are – just as it was excusable when you grew up that you thought Columbus discovered America…
