Online dating app Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales fell by 7.7% year on year to $247.1 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $239 million was less impressive, coming in 2% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.13 per share was 14.3% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Bumble (BMBL) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $247.1 million vs analyst estimates of $246.4 million (7.7% year-on-year decline, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.13 vs analyst expectations of $0.15 (14.3% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $64.4 million vs analyst estimates of $61.74 million (26.1% margin, 4.3% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q2 CY2025 is $239 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $243.8 million
- EBITDA guidance for Q2 CY2025 is $81.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $58.94 million
- Operating Margin: 18.1%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow was $40.83 million, up from -$8.57 million in the previous quarter
- Paying Users: 4.01 million, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $453.2 million
“Since I returned in mid-March, we have set an accelerated path to return to sustainable, long-term growth,” said Whitney Wolfe Herd, Founder & CEO of Bumble Inc.
Company Overview
Started by the co-founder of Tinder, Whitney Wolfe Herd, Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) is a leading dating app built with women at the center.
Sales Growth
A company’s long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. Any business can experience short-term success, but top-performing ones enjoy sustained growth for years. Unfortunately, Bumble’s 9.4% annualized revenue growth over the last three years was mediocre. This fell short of our benchmark for the consumer internet sector and is a rough starting point for our analysis.
This quarter, Bumble reported a rather uninspiring 7.7% year-on-year revenue decline to $247.1 million of revenue, in line with Wall Street’s estimates. Company management is currently guiding for a 11% year-on-year decline in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to decline by 7.9% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last three years. This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.
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Paying Users
Buyer Growth
As a subscription-based app, Bumble generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Over the last two years, Bumble’s paying users, a key performance metric for the company, increased by 12.4% annually to 4.01 million in the latest quarter. This growth rate is strong for a consumer internet business and indicates people love using its offerings. 
Unfortunately, Bumble’s paying users were flat year on year in Q1. The quarterly print was lower than its two-year result, suggesting its new initiatives aren’t moving the needle for buyers yet.
Revenue Per Buyer
Average revenue per buyer (ARPB) is a critical metric to track because it measures how much the average buyer spends. ARPB is also a key indicator of how valuable its buyers are (and can be over time).
Bumble’s ARPB fell over the last two years, averaging 4.9% annual declines. This isn’t great, but the increase in paying users is more relevant for assessing long-term business potential. We’ll monitor the situation closely; if Bumble tries boosting ARPB by taking a more aggressive approach to monetization, it’s unclear whether buyers can continue growing at the current pace. 
This quarter, Bumble’s ARPB clocked in at $20.24. It declined 7.3% year on year, worse than the change in its paying users.
Key Takeaways from Bumble’s Q1 Results
We were impressed by Bumble’s optimistic EBITDA guidance for next quarter, which blew past analysts’ expectations. We were also glad its EBITDA outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its revenue guidance for next quarter missed. Zooming out, we still think this was a decent quarter featuring some areas of strength. The stock traded up 8.9% to $4.78 immediately after reporting.
Is Bumble an attractive investment opportunity at the current price? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
